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MLB K Props, August 30th: Bailey Ober


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Bailey Ober O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Tigers

Oh, Detroit baseball, how I have missed fading you.

And thank you to the MLB for giving us a makeup game right after lunch to start our second-half of Monday off right.

Today’s play is Bailey Ober Over 4.5 strikeouts against the Tigers.

Lately, Detroit is resorting and showing flashes of the April and May Tigers that I loved so much. I have been watching their splits against RHP and LHP — and the strikeout numbers are drastic.

Versus RHP like Ober, 11 of the last 15 have gone Over 4.5 strikeouts (73.3%) compared to five of the last 15 LHP (33.3%), per statmuse.

Below are how RHP has fared in the last 15 starts, with seven of the previous 10 cashing (70%).

RHP vs DET

RHP vs DET

Ober has hit five or more strikeouts in four of the last five starts (80%) and three straight on the road. Away from Minnesota, Ober has a hit rate of 57.1%, going Over 4.5 Ks four of seven times, per NBC’s player prop model.

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His road Unders were against the White Sox (twice) and Royals in his second career start. Those two starts versus the White Sox were also Ober’s second and third time seeing Chicago. Ober met Chicago a fourth time at home and hit the Over with six Ks three starts ago.

Ober has only played the White Sox and Astros more than once this season. In the first start versus Houston, Ober struck out seven over 5.0 innings and sat down five in 5.0 innings of the second meeting. Ober has 24 strikeouts in 22.2 innings pitched versus Chicago.

Ober had four strikeouts with two walks and four earned runs across 3.1 innings pitched against the Tigers in the season’s first meeting.

In his first start against Detroit, Ober struck out Akil Baddoo, Willi Castro, Eric Haase and Jonathan Schoop. All four hitters are quality strikeout candidates if they are in the lineup today.

Derek Hill, Robbie Grossman and Daz Cameron are three more hitters that have struggled over the past week with strikeouts that would be good targets pending lineups.

The Tigers have surprisingly struggled with the fastball this month, and that is Ober’s primary pitch at 60% of the time.

Ober has increased and maintained his K/per inning average to a little over one strikeout per inning the past three months, so you figure if he makes it 5.0 innings, he can get five Ks.

Against Detroit, 10 of the last 12 RHP that went 5.0 innings recorded five strikeouts or more.

Back Ober to go for five-plus strikeouts as he owns a season-best 2.11 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 21.1 innings pitched this month.

Pick: Bailey Ober Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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